Andrew Breese

Infrequent thoughts of a professional geek

a Bitcoin random thought – its now a darn risky investment artefact

Quickly to be frank – A family member with a traditional banking and investment background asked me about bitcoin as an investment option – I had to tell him that I’m no expert, and he should play with CCs with as much many as he’d like to throw away. In fact I then suggested that giving money to strangers might be just as valid an investment. It is a fabricated artefact – here is why.

Bitcoin started as a techie concept which took a few years to be taken seriously by the techies, then moved to a very enticing and interesting practical implementation with benefits (pizza, games, anon purchases), and is now a mechanical artefact that suits investors and risk takers. This write-up by Seeking Alpha is an example – which indicates that Bitcoin is at its (apparently) weakest stage. Likewise the other CCs are not at all mature. Its a growth stage that may lead to a great long term currency when one of the many CC options becomes stable and ubiquitious. BitCoin is neither at present, but is very dynamic and interesting if you can throw away the time and money it costs you to investigate.

What that means is nobody is buying pizza anymore, investors are solidly looking at it for quick bouncing returns. That’s not a good time to buy, especially when a coin costs UD$14,000 (+/- 15-35%) + high fees. At this stage in its life I don’t think it is much different from the stock market, except there is no centralisation or control, nobody to hold accountable, frequent technical issues, and no demonstrated longevity. Think about that risk profile – its amazingly risky by comparison and people are buying and selling in large amounts recently.

I’m intersted in what happens later – when more curencies are in the market, offering different options for stability, style of implementations, or by financial institutions or countries. We are amid the maturing of CCs, and there are great times ahead. If I more time and $5k I was happy to throw away I’d still buy-in, and I’d take a serious look to other CCs instead of BitCoin, or wait till BC stabilises a lot more. The enticement is to find another CC which costs $50/coin, and hope it tripples as that would be enough of a test.

via seekingalpha, BC value



2 responses to “a Bitcoin random thought – its now a darn risky investment artefact

  1. Pingback: bitcoin additional thoughts and a great comic | Andrew Breese

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